Washington wants seniors to treat a larger check like a gift. It is not. A bigger 2027 cost-of-living adjustment means the grocery aisle, the pharmacy counter, and the power bill already ate last year’s raise. The only question left is how large the catch-up will be after September’s inflation print.
Fox Business reports that next year’s Social Security COLA is tracking higher than the 2.8 percent bump that hit checks in 2026. Forecasts now sit in a tight band. AARP puts the 2027 adjustment at 3.6 percent. The Senior Citizens League is at 3.5 percent. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is at 3.4 percent. Unless September prices lurch, the official number will land in the mid-3s.
That is better than this year’s raise. It is also the government admitting prices did not settle down.
How the Formula Works
By law, the Social Security Administration does not guess. It averages the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers for July, August, and September, then compares that average with the same three months a year earlier. The percentage increase, rounded to the nearest tenth, becomes the COLA. No increase means no raise.
August’s report already filled two of the three slots. Headline consumer prices were up 3.4 percent from a year earlier. The CPI-W, the index that actually drives the COLA, was up 3.5 percent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September’s numbers on October 14. SSA announces the official 2027 COLA shortly after. New amounts show up on January checks, with personalized notices in December.