A government shutdown occurs if federal agencies run out of money to finance their operations. Under the Antideficiency Act, the government cannot spend money it doesn’t have, so agencies must generally halt their operations until Congress appropriates new money.
Congress is supposed to annually renew agencies’ discretionary spending levels via 12 appropriations bills, but they often run out of time and pass a funding stopgap instead.
House lawmakers have already passed a Continuing Resolution to keep government funding levels on cruise control until November. But Democratic senators prevented the CR from passing the upper chamber and have no plans to relent unless partisan funding concessions are made – concessions Republicans are refusing to grant.
Political betting markets currently peg the chance of a partial government shutdown at above 80%. If that happens, the impacts on everyday Americans will vary widely based on occupation, region, and socioeconomic status.
During a shutdown, federal agencies and operations deemed essential – including national security, law enforcement, Border Patrol, outbreak monitoring, and emergency response – would remain fully open. Despite possible delays, Amtrak rail and airports would still run, the State department would continue processing passports and visas, and the Department of Education would continue administering student aid.
Americans would also continue to receive their mail, Social Security benefits, Medicare, Medicaid, and veterans’ benefits. These services can remain open because the U.S. Postal Service is almost entirely funded by its own revenue and the entitlement programs are funded by mandatory spending, which automatically renews without congressional approval.