It may take time, but bad governance inevitably leads to bad consequences. That’s a reality Democrats have been loathe to accept, as they’ve continued down a black hole of awful policy, whether it be economically or culturally. The bill is coming due, though.
According to a new analysis, a “ticking timebomb” is approaching in 2030, with the electoral landscape set to shift dramatically in favor of Republicans.
The year is 2032. Studying the Electoral College map, a Democratic presidential candidate can no longer plan to sweep New Hampshire, Minnesota and the “blue wall” battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and win the White House. A victory in the swing state of Nevada would not help, either.
That is the nightmare scenario many Democratic Party insiders see playing out if current U.S. population projections hold. After every decennial census, like the one coming up in 2030, congressional seats are reallocated among the states based on population shifts. Those seats in turn affect how big a prize each state is within the Electoral College — or how a candidate actually wins the presidency.
When I see “nightmare scenario” and “Democratic Party insiders” in a sentence, I tend to like what I’m reading. This has been talked about for a while, but now, with just five years to go and not much time left for major population shifts, we are starting to get some hard numbers.
For decades, Democrats have relied on the so-called “blue wall” states to win the White House. In 2016, it was thought to be an impregnable fortress of electoral votes, with Hillary Clinton not even bothering to campaign in Wisconsin. Ultimately, Donald Trump bested her in all three, and it shouldn’t be lost on anyone how much of an accomplishment that was for a Republican nominee. Even in his victories, the margins were razor-thin, and there are no guarantees that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin won’t drift leftward, especially given that they are all under state-level Democrat control.