When Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) decided to start a war over redistricting, he did so without considering any of the unintended consequences.
After Texas drew a congressional map that is still less gerrymandered than those in California, Illinois, and elsewhere, Democrats had a chance to de-escalate and accept that they don’t get to live by their own set of rules. Republicans would have gained a few pick-up opportunities in 2026, but the landscape wouldn’t have changed dramatically. Newsom wants to run for president, though, and that meant he had to get his face in the news.
So he touched off an arms race and now spends his days posting in all caps while moving ahead with a plan to take California’s already ridiculous maps well past the point of absurdity. The thing is, when you start an arms race, you’d better be sure you can outproduce your competition. That’s where things are quickly going off the rails for Newsom and his party.
According to President Donald Trump, Missouri is now moving to redistrict, and they are one of several red states expected to join the party.
A special session to make a 7-1 map in favor of Republicans seems imminent, and with the White House behind the push, it’s going to be very difficult for more moderate GOP members of the state legislature to stand in the way. And while you might think, “It’s just one seat,” all of these moves add up. Texas has added five GOP-leaning seats with its new map. California wanted to match that, but even its new map will likely only yield a four-seat pickup. With Missouri joining the fight, Republicans will finish ahead of Democrats.