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What Is the Risk of Nuclear War Between India and Pakistan?

Hostilities between India and Pakistan have intensified after a deadly militant attack in the contested Kashmir region killed twenty-six people. New Delhi has blamed its neighbor for the attack, but Islamabad has denied any involvement.  The incident has sparked a series of smaller military engagements along the Indian border and the Indian government has ordered all Pakistani visitors in India to leave by April 29th.  It has also threatened to block or divert water supplies from the Indus River system, which support 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture.

The Indus Water Treaty – which was brokered by the World Bank in September 1960 – determined the rights and obligations of Pakistan and India concerning the use of waters of the Indus River system. The agreement has stood the test of time and has long been hailed as a rare example of cooperation between the two ideologically opposed nations.  India’s unilateral suspension of the treaty is being called an “act of war” by Pakistan.

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