The U.S. Leading Economic Index fell 0.5 percent in September, continuing a decline that could signal a slowdown in the months ahead. The LEI, which forecasts future economic activity, is down 2.6 percent over the past six months, with weakness in manufacturing orders and an inverted yield curve contributing to the drop.
Economists had expected a smaller decline of 0.3 percent. The prior month was revised downward to show a 0.3 percent decline instead of the 0.2 percent drop originally reported.
The timing is problematic for Vice President Kamala Harris, whose campaign has highlighted manufacturing growth as a key achievement of the Biden-Harris administration. The LEI’s decline suggests that this narrative could face increasing scrutiny.