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GOP Only Needs to Flip Two Senate Seats to Win the Majority, but Polling Shows They Could Take Five

In these final days of the 2024 election, Senate races are gaining renewed attention. Republicans have a golden opportunity to flip at least two seats to gain the majority in the upper chamber of Congress.

The battle for the Senate majority has hit its final month as Republicans race to end their four-year stint in the minority.

The GOP needs to win only one of two competitive races in red states — Montana and Ohio — to do just that. According to Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Republicans have a 72 percent chance of retaking the upper chamber.

The bigger question is whether Republicans can strike gold beyond those two contests and stretch their success across the battleground map.

Montana and West Virginia are very favorable for Republican wins. However, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio are the surprise outliers. Should the winds of fortune turn in Republicans’ favor, it could turn a two-seat majority into a five-seat lock.

Montana

In 2016 and 2020, former President and GOP nominee Donald Trump won Montana by double digits, and he’s expected to do so again in 2024. Democrat Sen. John Tester is running for his fourth term but is being challenged by Republican Tim Sheehy, a businessman and former Navy Seal. Sheehy is young, charismatic and vibrant. Tester is a barnacle incumbent: he’s grown large (literally and figuratively) through swamp excess. Along with Trump’s endorsement of his candidacy, what Sheehy has done is successfully tie Tester to the failed Biden-Harris administration and its policies and Sheehy currently holds an eight-point lead over Tester. The Democrat Senate committee and outside PACs are pouring mega money into this race to no avail. Sheehy has maintained his lead over the sitting senator, and may well increase it before the election is done. Barring a miracle, Sheehy looks strong to flip this seat.

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2 thoughts on “GOP Only Needs to Flip Two Senate Seats to Win the Majority, but Polling Shows They Could Take Five”

  1. Of note in the Senate races, the dumbocrats are essentially admitting that Larry Hogan is a better candidate than Angela Alsobrooks with their recent ad stating that they won’t vote for Larry Hogan because that would give controw (yes, one voter said it that way) of the Senate to the Republican party….

    They are going to get it anyway – and these low intelligence voters will stick Maryland with one of the worst Senate representatives in quite a while!

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