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Here’s How A Wave Of Dem Retirements Could Help The House GOP Grow Its Majority In 2024

House Republicans appear to be in a better position to capitalize off of a wave of congressional retirements, as there are more Democratic-held open seats in swing districts that pose an opportunity for the GOP to flip in 2024.

There are currently 31 House members who are not seeking another term in the lower chamber, including 20 Democrats and 11 Republicans — nearly all of whom hold seats that are considered safe for the GOP. Four Democratic-held open seats in battleground districts in Michigan, Virginia and California are most likely to flip red, while several other seats are also up for grabs by the GOP in 2024, according to political analysts and electoral rankings.

“Swing-seat Democrats are racing for the exits and making their party’s climb out of the minority even steeper. The [National Republican Congressional Committee] is pouncing on each of these open seat opportunities to grow our majority,” Jack Pandol, communications director for the House GOP’s campaign arm, told the Daily Caller News Foundation in a statement.

The seats held by Reps. Dan Kildee of Michigan, Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, Katie Porter of California and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan are currently the most vulnerable among outgoing Democrats, according to David Wasserman, elections analyst at The Cook Political Report. Kildee announced his retirement from politics Nov. 16, Spanberger launched a gubernatorial campaign on Nov. 13 and Porter and Slotkin have been running for Senate since earlier this year.

“In 2022, they massively outspent the Republicans running against them and that was a big reason why they were able to hold onto their seats, even while Democrats lost control of the House,” Wasserman told the DCNF. “And yet, we could be looking at a more level playing field in 2024 in these districts where both Republicans and Democrats could be spending similar amounts.”

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