We could be at a generational turning point for finance. Politics, economics, international relations, demography and labor are all shifting to supporting inflation. After more than 40 years of policies that gave priority to the fight against rising prices, investor- and consumer-friendly solutions are becoming less fashionable, not only in the U.S. but in much of the world.
Investors are woefully unprepared for such a shift, perhaps because such historic turning points have proven remarkably hard to spot. This may be another false alarm, and it will take many years to play out, but the evidence for a general shift is strong across five fronts.
1) Central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, are now less concerned about inflation
2) Politics has shifted to spend even more now, pay even less later
3) Globalization is out of fashion
4) Demographics worsen the situation
5) Empowered labor puts upward pressure on wages and prices
Ms. Yellen’s comment on Tuesday that her big spending plans might require rates to “rise somewhat” suggests the Biden administration isn’t pressuring the Fed to hold rates down.
The meat aisle at the Acme is getting out of reach.
7:00 Wear platform shoes