Elections can bring some real surprises. Case in point: Only a few weeks ago most political junkies would have thought that Minnesota’s Senate race, given the nature of the Land of 10,000 Lakes and at least 10,000 welfare fraud schemes, was a shoo-in for the Democrat candidate, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan. But now, in the wake of Flanagan and her boss, Governor Tim “Great Walz of China,” being implicated or at least linked to several major fraud schemes, the race is tightening. The Republican candidate, Michele Tafoya, has closed the polling gap, with the latest showing the race to be a tie.
We may be looking at an upset in the making.
The Minnesota senate race is polling unusually close as the state enters the midterms’ homestretch. Republicans are sharply criticizing the state’s Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for welfare fraud under the Walz administration’s watch, hoping that tying her to the scandals will help decide the race that could be an unexpected pickup opportunity for Republicans in the midterms.
The most recent polling in the Minnesota race shows Republican Michelle Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, tied with current Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, and the race is tightening. After the primary elections earlier this year, Flanagan held about a five-point lead over Tafoya. That lead has now evaporated about a month and a half out from the election. While Tafoya has adopted the usual Republican framing on issues like immigration, crime, and tax cuts, she has seized upon the recent welfare fraud scandals in the blue state to hammer her opponent.
She’s not the only one hammering Peggy Flanagan on this issue. Flanagan is linked to one Nimco Ahmed, whom Flanagan describes as a great personal friend. Ahmed is implicated in fraudulent billing schemes for autism treatment centers. That’s still working through the due process, but this is an election, not a trial, and in the case of an election, that may be enough to tip the scale.
Or will it? This account cites one poll, a KSTP/Survey USA poll taken from 9/9 to 9/14, which shows the two candidates tied. But a co/efficient poll taken on 9/14 and 9/15 shows Flanagan ahead by one point, with a Quantus Insights showing Flanagan with a four point lead; the final recent poll is a TIPP poll taken from 8/31 to 9/2, showing Flanagan leading by two points. That gives a RealClear Polling average showing Flanagan ahead by 1.8 points.