Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned at the end of May we could see “$250 a barrel oil and 11% inflation as a worst-case scenario in 2026.”
That didn’t happen… yet. Dowd explains, “We had two scenarios when we talked last…”
” One was the conflict would get resolved in the April – May time frame.
Oil would peak out around $125 (per barrel), and inflation would peak out in May and go lower.
That’s what happened, but recently, MOU (Memorandum of Understanding with Iran) has been torn up and oil is back on the rise.
Oil collapsed to around the low $70s to high $60s after the MOU. It’s now $80 and change.
So, unless this is resolved quickly, the other scenario is on the table…
If the conflict continues and gets worse, and you want to watch it progress, if we break out technically, meaningfully to $100 to $125, and back test and hold support, then the next level is $200 to $250 a barrel.
All we are talking about here is my thesis that we are going into a global recession, and it gets pulled forward that much quicker. We will have a burst of inflation and massive demand destruction.”
The Iran/US war is not the only headwind Dowd sees.