Confirming our Sunday preview, overnight China reported growth data which slowed across the board in April with investment resuming declines, retail sales missing sales and growing at the weakest rate in 4 years while industrial production rose at the slowest pace in three years, calling into question Beijing’s reluctance to add stimulus to the economy as a global energy crisis hits factories and consumers across the world.
China’s Monday data dump of official data on Monday painted a picture of an economy where booming exports no longer offset deteriorating consumption at home, prompting analysts at banks including Nomura and SocGen to urge bolder measures in support of growth.
As shown in the chart below, fixed-asset investment unexpectedly shrank 1.6% in the first four months of 2026 from a year earlier, while industrial production grew just 4.1% last month, the weakest in almost three years. Retail sales also missed forecasts and rose just 0.2% in April, the worst reading since they contracted in December 2022, when China reopened from Covid.