Bearing in mind the one-off impact of BLS correcting for shutdown-related distortions (in rent/shelter) from last October., this morning’s CPI was expected to come in hot as the impact of the Iran war starts to spread (energy, airfares, transport) and the melt-up in memory costs (unrelated to war) as the token wars continue.
As a reminder, March saw headline CPI in line (energy) while Core CPI actually printed cooler than expected. and we suspect most attention will be on the Core side again today with investors ‘looking through’ short-term energy-driven cost pressures.
Headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM (as expected), pulling headline up 3.8% YoY (hotter than the 3.7% expected) and the hottest since May 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Energy and Food costs dominated the rise in headline CPI along with Core Services…