- The critical question is whether we will stop at weakening the Iranian regime or Hamas or move toward ensuring that they can never again recover as long-term threats to their neighbors or global security. At this moment, leaving those regimes in place – the ruling mullahs in Iran or Hamas in Gaza — is probably the most dangerous option.
- Authoritarian regimes such as Iran’s, and terrorist groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic State and the Taliban, rarely respond to setbacks by abandoning their ambitions. Instead, they pause, regroup, and rebuild.
- Russia and China, each with its own anti-American calculations, could provide political cover, technological assistance, and indirect support that would allow Iran to resume its nuclear program. China has already been supplying Iran with “almost everything but troops” during this war, and supplying Russia with military materiel for its war against Ukraine.
- If Iran’s regime and Hamas are allowed to recover, their primary strategic objective will likely become to rearm as quickly as possible, and we will be right back at war again.
- Stopping halfway through such efforts only allows threats to reemerge dangerously in the future. History will judge whether these two opportunities presented today were seized — or allowed to slip away.
What has taken place in recent weeks is nothing short of historic. For decades, the Iranian regime and its proxies, including Hamas, have operated with a sense of impunity. For decades, Iran’s rulers have expanded their regional influence, armed their proxy militias, threatened their neighbors, and steadily advanced their weapons or mass destruction programs. While various countries imposed sanctions and Israel and the United States occasionally conducted limited military responses, no large-scale effort was ever undertaken to fundamentally weaken the political and military power deep inside Iran. That reality has now changed dramatically.
Now, for the first time, both the Iranian regime and Hamas have experienced direct and sustained military campaigns at a scale they had long assumed would never occur.
Strategic air strikes have damaged key Iranian facilities, command centers, and military infrastructure. Defense networks, missile production facilities and launchers and military bases have been targeted — significantly limiting Iran’s ability to project power beyond its borders. Many elements of its naval capabilities have also been struck, reducing its capacity to threaten international shipping lanes and regional maritime security.