If you’ve been around politics for any length of time, you know the drill: Special off-cycle elections are supposed to offer an augury into what’ll end up happening when the midterms roll around, and it’s never good news for the president.
Usually, these things are non-stories. Most of these seats are in districts where the majority party has a safe seat and the party out of power makes a big show of trying to get a fresh face within striking distance of a safe seat.
Sometimes, this helps to vault a previously obscure politician into the national spotlight. Jon Ossoff, for instance, is now a member of the Senate because of one of these off-cycle special elections. Usually, it does not. (It’s only been a few months since her loss, but I think the ascent of Aftyn Behn reached its premature apogee in rather spectacular fashion in December, despite outperforming Democrats’ typical vote totals in the Tennessee district she attempted to flip.)