Part 3 of The Republicans Bounce Back (A Little) in the Battle for the U.S. Senate
In my last two columns regarding the 2026 Senate midterm elections, I didn’t include the North Carolina race, where nothing of consequence had happened since my previous Senate update.
Unfortunately, things have changed there, in a big way. And there is no question in my mind that the brutal murder of Iryna Zarutska in Charlotte, North Carolina, by a schizophrenic career criminal will alter the fundamentals of the 2026 U.S. Senate race in that state.
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (retiring) / Tilt D
As I wrote before, former Gov. Roy Cooper’s entrance into the race had given the Democrats a slight edge. He has been elected twice as governor and, before that, for four terms as the state attorney general. On the other side, Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley announced he would run and got President Trump’s endorsement. It is unclear how good of candidate Whatley will be, as he has never stood for office before, but he will certainly be able to raise money.
The RCP average has the universally known Cooper ahead of the largely unknown Whatley 46% to 41.3%. Overall, this is good for Whatley.
As I saw it, Cooper’s slight edge comes from the normal GOP advantage in federal races being counterbalanced by Cooper’s political strength in the state and the fact that the Democrats should have a slight edge nationally as the “out party.”
But now things may change, bigly. The murder of this poor woman, a Ukrainian immigrant who fled her own nation’s brutal war to escape to what she hoped was safety in the U.S., will presumably tilt the Senate race to Whatley.