If past is prologue, Donald Trump will win Pennsylvania.
Eight years ago this week, Hillary Clinton led in Pennsylvania by more than nine points; four years ago, Joe Biden led by nearly six points. Clinton lost Pennsylvania by less than a point, while Biden won it by more than a point.
Heading into the Democratic National Convention, the Emerson/RealClearPennsylvania poll showed Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a point.
Averaging together the Pennsylvania polling taken since Harris became the Democratic Party’s nominee, the state’s presidential race is a dead heat.
Of the fifty-nine public polls released in 2016 tracking the Pennsylvania presidential race, Trump led in only two. In 2020, Trump led in only five of the eighty-four Pennsylvania polls released.
This cycle, Trump has led in thirteen of the seventeen Pennsylvania polls released. In fact, Trump is leading more polls than the previous two election cycles combined, and we have yet to reach Labor Day, when polling frequency intensifies.
Trump will win almost every state by a landslide if there is a fair and transparent election