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CPI Prints Hotter Than Expected In January As SuperCore Soared

Expectations were for a big drop in the YoY consumer price index (from +3.4% to +2.9%) but instead it surprised to the upside (just as we warned) with a +3.1% YoY print for headline CPI (spoiling the sub-3% partiers). Consumer prices rose 0.3% MoM (more than the 0.2% exp) but the headline did decline from +3.4% to +3.1% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

The 3-month annualized rate ticked up to 4% from 3.3%. The 6-month annualized rate was 3.7% (vs 3.2%). Not pretty.

Core CPI fell below 4.00% YoY for the first time since May 2021, but the +3.86% YoY print was hotter than the 3.7% exp (with prices rising 0.4% MoM – the biggest jump since April 2023)…

Source: Bloomberg

CPI Core: The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in January.

  • The shelter index increased 0.6 percent in January, and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.
    • The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.6 percent over the month, while the index for rent increased 0.4 percent.
  • The lodging away from home index increased 1.8 percent in January.
  • More

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