Republicans Fall Just Short in Virginia, but There’s More to the Story

The 2023 election was another disappointing affair for Republicans. Kentucky and Ohio both produced results that should leave the GOP questioning what changes need to be made before the all-important 2024 election arrives.

With that said, there were some bright spots. Specifically, in Virginia, Republicans showed a surprising level of strength despite falling short of taking the legislature. That’s probably not what you are getting from the headlines this morning,  but the numbers show an overperformance by the Glenn Youngkin-led GOP there.

The most stunning stat shows that Republicans won every single seat in districts rated up to Biden +9.

There are some on the right who are absconding from that information because they don’t like Youngkin and view him as a threat to their wing of the party. They are misleading people.

The reality is that because of a redistricting effort by Democrats that occurred just before Youngkin took power, actually taking the Virginia legislature was always a long shot. There is no denying, though, that Republicans made a very strong push to do so on Tuesday and could be reasonably described as having overperformed. That’s been a rarely used word regarding Republicans the last several election cycles.

At some point, the electoral realities of a state come into play. Youngkin’s win in 2021 was astonishing, but it was not a new baseline. Virginia is a blue state. That’s largely because its northern portion is heavily populated with federal employees, a demographic that is overwhelmingly liberal.

More