Trump’s tariff plan would raise $2 trillion or more and reduce deficit, watchdog says

Trump has proposed a baseline tariff of 10% on all U.S. imports. Analysts say his plan might have the effect of reducing growth, but the Trump campaign reportedly disputes this.

Former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential frontrunner, has proposed a tariff plan that would raise between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion and result in deficit reduction, according to a budget watchdog group. Trump has proposed a baseline tariff of 10% on all U.S. imports.

So far into FY2023, the deficit is $1.6 trillion.

“We estimate this policy could raise approximately  $2.5 trillion over the Fiscal Year (FY) 2026 to 2035 budget window under conventional scoring. The tariff is also likely to reduce economic growth – although the Trump campaign disputes this – which we estimate could shrink the revenue gains to roughly $2 trillion,” according to an analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

“Depending on whether or not these economic effects are incorporated, we estimate the policy would reduce debt as share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in FY 2035 by 4 to 7 percentage points,” the CRFB estimated.

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