The interesting feature of the ‘last chance to get out’ is nobody sees it until after the crash has done its damage.
Every asset bubble has a last chance to get out before the crash point that becomes obvious in the aftermath. But at the time, this last opportunity to exit before the wipeout is difficult to identify for a number of reasons.
One is the general mood at the top of bubbles is extreme confidence that there are further gains just ahead. Everyone who attempted to identify the top of the rally has been proven wrong, and everyone who shorted the rally (i.e. bet on a decline) has been wiped out.
The most anyone is willing to say publicly is that risk is elevated, some day there will be a reckoning, etc., all of which is boilerplate everyone has heard for months or even years.
The last chance to sell doesn’t give itself away; technically it’s at best ambiguous as all the conventional topping signals tend to be muddied, enabling Bulls to declare the top is far from in and bearish signals have been nullified.
The classic last chance follows an apparent breakout to new highs that exceeds previous resistance. In retrospect, the breakout proves to be false, but at the time it’s clear to Bulls that this is yet another breakout and therefore a reliable signal for more gains ahead.
Everyone who sold on downlegs is anxious to get back in and so every dip is reversed by buy the dip buyers who have been handsomely rewarded for buying previous dips.
Technically, traditional signs of a top such as double tops and head and shoulders are mooted by the advance. The rally exceeds whatever levels were considered bearish triggers and so the consensus that further advances are essentially guaranteed finds sufficient technical support for even skittish traders to continue to be all-in the market.
The first decline off the last chance to exit is bought, but the rally falters. The buy-the-dippers dismiss this as an anomaly and buy this second dip. That too falters and once the third buy-the-dip has failed to rally back to previous highs, many buy-the-dippers have been wiped out and the momentum of buying slackens.
When it’s clear buy-the-dip has failed, the selling becomes a self-reinforcing avalanche and the market crashes.
Country was Doomed DAY ONE of Biden !!!! SHOULD HAVE KEPT > TRUMP !!!!!!!
Told you so !!!
City Fail in OC crashed a long long time ago. The frogger wall, losing any views from coastal highway, town motto of being family friendly, the crazy parking strategy/kiosks at the inlet, businesses moving to West OC, the elites buying and building on the island, trying to pack as many weekends as possible with events even with recent minimal workers/help in the hospitality industry, cussing and smoking ordinances, in the news (internet) with boardwalk arrests, several years ago arresting a pregnant woman on the beach who then lost the baby, junebugs, bikers, cruisers, unsanctioned h2oi leftovers, taxi medallions, sewer cleanouts, coastal highway paving over manholes, taxes, then large surpluses deciding what else to spend, route 90 new bridge versus replacement of the route 50 drawbridge (remember that 4th of July DAY when the bridge went up, didnt come down and OC was at a standstill since everyone was on Vacation…everyone), vagrants still hiding, the bathroom rest area debacle with Black Diamond, poor hiring selections for the local govt, emphasis with spending on pretty watertowers, dog parks and we know $$$$ went to that nice art league that services only the few, horse carriage rides and toplessness continuing in the news (maybe to the SCOTUS).
WOW
Now the recent selling of the carousel, dunes, phillips properties (HUGE $$$$ there), big hotel chains building 2nd, 3rd and 4th tiered anchors, margaritaville tabled due to alleyway right of way (interesting that got tabled a few weems prior to Phillps say night night OC), ongoing height restrictions yet how in the hell did the embers project……ah never mind, rules are always changed and riddle me this on this final thing….all this OC money, yet City Fail produces their tuesday meetings with 1980s TV technology.
How the hell does that happen?
But alas the crash for local isnt coming…its been here and more fun to come. Its an election year and we currently lost the City Manager.
Less than 5 months until memorial day weekend.
Few working-class NEW Republicans have the property holdings, savings and conservative investments it takes not only to live their assumed American Dream but much less to RETIRE in the DREAM. Most will be living on the JOKE of Social Security and what small pension they may have which is unlikely because they hate Unions and never took a stand for themselves. Chances are their lifestyles and dietary habits will not proffer a long retirement and proffers those of us invested against them and their demise.
We did our part to keep Trump. We all voted for him, but you know how that story ends.
In order to survive you have to be on the inside like Wicomico Councilmen John Cannon and Bill McCain. Along with some friends in the Chamber of Commerce and Greater Salisbury Committee they know how to use the system to their advantage. People always talk about Ethics but no one ever does anything.