Mark it down: In 2028, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s presidential candidacy will not survive the New Hampshire primary.
Likewise, former Vice President Kamala Harris might make it a bit further, but not much.
Why the bold forecast? Well, in a poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted between Feb. 27 and March 3, NBC News found that Harris and especially Newsom have comparatively low favorability ratings even among Democrats.
Incredibly, only 52 percent of Democrats reported positive views of the California governor. If only half of voters in your own party like you, then how can you possibly win a national election?
For comparison’s sake, Harris earned a 67 percent favorability rating among Democrats.
Of course, one might argue that Harris, who already ran a national campaign, benefits from name recognition.
That explanation, however, does not account for the fact that Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, who, like Newsom, has never run a national campaign, matched Harris’ popularity by earning a favorable rating from nearly two-thirds of Democrats.