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The Virginia Governor’s Race Is Going to Be Tough for the GOP

Politico reported this week that “Spanberger is poised to win big in Virginia.”

Guess what? In this case, like a broken watch, twice a day, Politico’s relentless cheerleading for the Democrats is actually correct.

Virginia is just not a good state for Republicans. Which is a shame, because I remember the good old days. When I moved to Virginia from Pennsylvania in the early 2000s, I left a competitive Commonwealth in Pennsylvania for a conservative-but-Democrat-leaning Commonwealth that was expected to eventually become a heavily Republican Commonwealth in Virginia. Since then, while Pennsylvania has stayed basically the same, Virginia has gone from lean Democrat to lean Republican and back again.

The problem, as any political observer knows, is the federal government workers who have moved en masse to Northern Virginia. They are heavily Democrat, and now outvote the rest of the state. Virginia, like Florida (i.e., South New York), is now a Southern State In Name Only (SSINO).

Virginia is unusual in other ways as well. It has off-year elections, which makes the turnout rather low. It has a one-term limit for its governors, which means that no governor can be rewarded for a popular term with an easy reelection. This year, this means that popular Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is not able to run again. And, it has a tradition of swinging against the incumbent president’s party, which has occurred for decades with only one exception – when my former boss Ken Cuccinelli narrowly lost to Terry McAuliffe in 2013, because of a yuge Democrat edge in campaign spending and some dirty Democrat politics of propping up a former-Republican-turned-libertarian-independent who siphoned off Republican votes.

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