The 2024 presidential election continues to be one of the closest in history, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris running neck-and-neck nationally and in the swing states. Who has the advantage going into the final few weeks of the race? New county-level polling out of Pennsylvania suggests it’s the former president.
According to a survey conducted by Cygnal and sponsored by The Daily Wire, Trump leads in the bellwether counties of Erie and Northampton. Those were won by the overall winner of the 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections, making them crucial battlegrounds in what is already the most important swing state.
The two counties, Erie and Northampton, have voted with the winning side in every election since 2008 — they sided with President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020. Pennsylvania is considered one of the most important battleground states in the 2024 election with most polls showing a statistical tie between Trump and Harris.
Trump is ahead in the swing districts by just one percent, 49 to 48, according to the Cygnal survey.
“In a reversal from 2020, Pennsylvania’s ‘Bellwether Counties’ have narrowly swung back to Donald Trump,” the pollster wrote, determining that the former president is winning over traditional Democrat voters that view Harris as too radical. “As Democrats have a 4-point party registration advantage in these counties, this is further evidence of these ancestral Democrats increasingly leaving the party of their forefathers.”