Election watchers woke up to a shock on Sunday after The New York Times and Sienna College released a poll that changed the perception of the presidential race.
Kamala Harris, who entered the race in July after pushing Joe Biden aside, has been leading most polls with the conventional wisdom being that she held a slim if not durable lead. According to this latest survey, though, Trump is beating Harris in both the head-to-head and multi-candidate field.
No doubt some will try, but anyone who tries to pick apart those crosstabs, which are listed in the second post above, is just going to look desperate. I’m firmly against “un-skewing polls” and crosstab-truthing. I think you take a poll for what it is, add its topline to the average, and move on. When anyone starts to ripping apart crosstabs and trying to “re-weight” a poll, they are playing with fire and setting themselves up for disappointment.