The man who for decades had been an almost lone Congressional advocate of non-interventionism in American foreign policy is former Congressman Ron Paul. When he ran for president in 2008, he took what the late Justin Raimondo called “libertarian realism” to the masses in the famous moment wherein he tangled with Rudy Giuliani on the GOP debate stage. Paul described that “blowback” resulting from Washington militarism and adventurism abroad was a contributing cause of 9/11. But for a population fed on a steady diet of the world-saving messianism of Wilsonian internationalism, in which America’s mystic destiny is to “make the world safe for democracy” (to quote Raimondo)—Rep. Paul’s policy positions were deemed somehow ‘too radical’ for American voters to swallow at the time (or rather, the mainstream gatekeeping pundits assured their viewers of his “fringe” views). Fast forward to well over another decade of the failed GWOT later, and now a common refrain heard on social media and even in the halls of Congress and occasionally the State Department is: Ron Paul was right.
The US ‘forever wars’ in the Middle East led to a jaded, war-weary, and questioning public which tends to be ever-more skeptical anytime the political class starts talking a new major foreign intervention. This is perhaps why, ever since the Obama presidency Washington has shown a preference for covert and proxy wars, or involvement from the shadows, instead of Bush-style ‘shock and awe’ outright invasions. But currently, the Pentagon and US intelligence are involved in two disastrous hot wars (on a proxy and covert level) which could escalate into massive regional wars, or even world wars, at any moment: Ukraine and Gaza.
Back in 2014, another realist accurately predicted the tragic and disastrous Russia-Ukraine war which would eventually erupt in February 2022 when he said in a University of Chicago lecture: “The West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path and the end result is Ukraine is going to get wrecked.“ Professor John J. Mearsheimer’s now famous 2014 hour-and-fifteen minute lecture, once it was popularly ‘discovered’ on YouTube after the Russian invasion of 2022, has since racked up nearly 30 million views. We wrote about his insights and forecasts in Mearsheimer’s Ukraine Crystal Ball. And now in 2024 more and more people continue to say: John Mearsheimer was right.