About seven months ago, panic gripped financial markets over the regional bank meltdown, primarily due to exposure to the commercial real estate space, specifically office towers. Since then, many market participants have forgotten the turmoil, but not all have done so.
A new weekly survey of Terminal users by Bloomberg’s Markets Live team finds two-thirds of the 919 respondents believe the office tower market needs to crash before a rebound can be seen.
Nearly half (44%) of respondents said tower prices will trough in the second half of 2024. About 29% believe 2025 or later.
Terminal users likely understand what Morgan Stanley pointed out earlier this year: a staggering $2.5 trillion in debt maturities and rollovers at much higher rates over the next five years: