The Implausibility Of A Net Zero Carbon Energy Future Is Now Obvious

Germany has hit a brick wall on clean energy, postponing a ban on internal-combustion automobile engines. Let’s start there.

EU Drafts Plan to Allow E-Fuel Combustion Engine Cars

Reuters reports EU Drafts Plan to Allow E-Fuel Combustion Engine Cars

The European Commission has drafted a plan to allow sales of new cars with internal combustion engines after 2035 if they run only on climate neutral e-fuels, as it tries to resolve a spat with Germany over moves to phase out combustion engine cars.

The draft proposal, seen by Reuters on Tuesday, suggests creating a new type of vehicle category in the European Union for cars that can only run on carbon neutral fuels.

Such vehicles would have to use technology that would prevent them from driving if other fuels are used, the draft said.

The proposal could offer a route for carmakers to keep selling combustion engine vehicles after 2035, the date when a planned EU law is set to ban the sale of new CO2-emitting cars.

Preposterous E-Fuel Assumptions

Eurointelligence comments on E-Fuel Assumptions.

ARD German TV reports on a study by the Potsdam institute for climate impact research, which reveals the utter lack of reality in the German debate about e-fuels. Even in the best-case scenario, Germany will struggle to get enough e-fuels to meet its indispensable demand, from shipping, air transport and the chemical industry. These will all still require liquid hydrocarbons as their energy source. In other words, there won’t be anything left for cars. The whole FDP debate about the exemption for e-fuelled power cars after 2035 is a smoke screen.

The politics of this is that the FDP is trying to arrest its political decline by appealing to rural voters, who are dependent on the motorcar for transport. A recent poll in Germany has shown that around two thirds of the population opposes the end of the fuel-driven car.

E-fuels are based on the extraction of hydrogen from water through a process called electrolysis. In a second stage the hydrogen then combines with carbon dioxide to produce hydrocarbons. The idea is to use green energy for the production of e-fuels, for use by ships and airplanes. The same goes for parts of the chemical industry. Together, they account for 40% of Germany’s total demand for liquid hydrocarbons. The institute’s simulation assumes the relatively optimistic assumption that air transport stays at current levels.

A far more likely scenario is that there won’t be enough e-fuels around even to satisfy the indispensable demand. So far, only 60 production facilities are currently in the pipeline worldwide. Of those, only a small fraction are funded. Even if they all get funded, they will only produce a tiny fraction of what Germany itself demands. The idea that there is enough left for cars is completely unrealistic.

What this is telling us, beyond the petty FDP politics, is that the Germans are fighting tooth and nail to squeeze the last hydrocarbons into their cars, rather than focus on next generation technologies. All for the sake of a couple of percentage points in the polls.

It is the classic losers’ strategy.

Europe Backtracks on Its Gas-Car Ban

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