If you’ve been following the political chatter for the last month or so, one common theme being pushed by the press and data nerd Twitter is the idea of a Democrat “comeback” before the mid-terms.
Historically, every headwind is against Joe Biden and his party, but as the story goes, things will be different this time. After all, the Democrats passed the “Inflation Reduction Act” that doesn’t actually reduce inflation, and Democrats have taken some leads on the generic ballot since the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
My response has been different, though. The generic ballot has often understated Republican support in environments that don’t favor Democrats (i.e. not 2018). On this day during the 2014 cycle, Democrats led by 1.4 percent. The final result was Republicans by 5.7 percent. On this day in 2016, Democrats led by 5 points on the generic ballot. On election day, Republicans won by 1.1 percent and kept control in Congress Even in 2020, the generic ballot overstated Democrat support by 3.7 percent, which is why Republicans actually gained a lot of ground in the House.
As I’ve written previously, the point is simple: Summer polling is notoriously bad and typically favors Democrats (at least post-2012). Those using it to make bold proclamations that Republicans have blown the election before it has even happened are deluding themselves.
Further, the closer we get to September, the more you can expect the GOP to start gaining ground again because those that are going to break typically break to the out party. Sure enough, the latest NBC News poll is out, and it’s everything the election bros on Twitter told us wasn’t supposed to be happening.
The Dem did make a comeback. Back to DC and away from our shore!!!