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“When Not If…” – Monster Of A Recession On Deck

While everyone has been transfixed by the unexpected drop in the UMich 5/10 year inflation expectations, which dropped to 3.1% from a preliminary 3.3% print, which means that the alarm signal that prompted the Fed to panic last week and prompted the market to aggressively reprice (lower) the odds of future Fed hikes…

… the report also showed the lowest consumer sentiment reading in the 70-year history of the series, realistically speaking a far more troubling indicator than what a small group of respondents think inflation will be in 10 years (spoiler alert, it will be much higher than they expect).

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