GDP estimates are plunging but are still too high. A recession is on the near horizon.
The GDPNow Forecast was at 2.5 percent on the May 17 retail sales report. It’s now 1.3 percent and falling fast.
This snip is from June 1.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on June 1, down from 1.9 percent on May 27. After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, and this morning’s construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 4.7 percent and -6.4 percent, respectively, to 4.4 percent and -8.2 percent, respectively.
Stall Rate
1.3 percent is below the stall rate. However, Real Final Sales is the number to watch.
That’s the true bottom line number for the economy. The rest is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time.
The GDPNow estimate for Real Final Sales is a very respectable 2.9 percent.
Why the Recession Call?
On April 28, I reported GDP Declines 1.4% in First Quarter of 2022 Sounding Recession Bells
Economists missed the mark badly as GDP shrunk along with real final sales.
Real final sales was negative in the first quarter and I expect a repeat in the second quarter because I do not believe retail sales will hold up.
Expect a Revolution to Remove the FAKE Biden Administration by AMERICANS !!!!!! IMPEACH them ALL !!!!
Need a ARMED Insurrection the next time Democrat Party CHEATS Elections !!!!!!!!!!!
The so called EXPERTS should lose their jobs!
Only weather folks hold the distinct title of unaccountability and still retain their jobs!
economy is slowing cause everryone is saving for an electric car
I believe we are in one now. I’ve cut back on my spending due to the high prices of goods and services.
If you are on a fixed income, it’s a depression!
I have to now supplement my elderly mother’s groceries because she cannot afford to buy meat.
Having to also help with her phone and electric. Very disheartening!
And it’s going to get worse as long a Biden and the dems. are at the helm. Those of us on fixed incomes are seriously struggling.