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Some States May Be Well on Their Way to Herd Immunity

The coronavirus epidemic is surging and taking with it the economy, our ability to gather with friends and family, and our hopes for the future. We need to get it over with. But in the midst of the explosion in new cases, some states are actually experiencing declines in the number of new cases while other states are witnessing increases. Changes in the rate of infections have been attributed to political affiliation, defiant lifestyles, and irresponsible leadership. But there may be a simpler answer. Some states may be running out of people who have not already been infected.

Experts estimate that about two-thirds of the population need to have neutralizing antibodies in order to reach herd immunity. Two-thirds of the 325 million people in the United States is about 218 million people. You can get antibodies that neutralize the virus in one of two ways: taking an effective vaccine, which is only being starting to be administered, or having been infected with the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.  About 19 million people in the U.S. have had confirmed cases of COVID.  But confirmed cases may be the tip of the iceberg. Although   estimates vary, the Centers for Disease Control believes that about eight people have been infected  for each one person with a documented case. If we multiply the 19 million known cases by 8, it is possible that about 152 million people are already immune. Yet, the proportion of people who have been infected and the rate of new cases varies significantly by state.

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